Ten31 Timestamp 917,612
While the nation sits gripped with fear wondering who will build the roads, the government shutdown wasn’t enough to deter bullish investor sentiment on the week – as is typically the case – with equity indices hitting new all-time highs yet again and bitcoin adding one Goldman Sachs to its market cap. Though Congress is at a temporary standstill with no path to a shutdown resolution in sight, President Trump clearly reiterated once again where everything is ultimately going with his proposal for $2,000 “tariff dividend” stimulus checks and an explicit declaration that the US is going to grow its way out of bloated federal debt. Investors are increasingly getting the message loud and clear, with even JP Morgan openly acknowledging the “debasement trade” supporting gold and bitcoin inflows this week. As our elected representatives furiously debated the exact positioning of the Titanic’s deck chairs, the Ten31 team spent much of the week at our annual portfolio retreat discussing the foundational technologies that will serve as the life raft for the millions of people increasingly waking up to both the reality of inevitable debasement and the potential of freedom-oriented tools like bitcoin, Nostr, and private AI. As always, we came away with stronger conviction than ever that, regardless of political posturing or market gyrations, we’re going to win.
Portfolio Company Spotlight
AnchorWatch is a first of its kind bitcoin insurance and custody provider offering true 1:1 coverage through its innovative, proprietary vault technology and backing from Lloyd’s of London, a dramatic step up from the fractional insurance coverage offered by most traditional custodians. The company’s Trident Vault platform leverages bitcoin’s native properties to offer bitcoin holders and fiduciaries an intuitive, enterprise-grade collaborative custody solution that enables highly composable and dynamic custody schemes, all with the backing of regulated, blue-chip insurance products that further mitigate risks of theft, key mismanagement, natural disasters, and more. Trident Vault, which integrates with many popular bitcoin signing devices, was designed with distributed teams and complex workflows in mind, and AnchorWatch’s embedded insurance offerings are set to unlock further bitcoin adoption among high net worth customers, enterprises, and institutions of all sizes.
As the world’s largest investor focused entirely on bitcoin, Ten31 has deployed $200 million across two funds into more than 30 of the most promising and innovative companies in the ecosystem, and we expect 2025 to be the best year yet for both bitcoin and our portfolio. Visit ten31.xyz/invest to learn more and get in touch to discuss participating.
Selected Portfolio News
AnchorWatch announced the launch of insurance policies tailored to bitcoin mining operations:
Strike users can now more easily edit no-fee DCA plans:
Media
AnchorWatch Co-Founder and CEO Rob Hamilton led a panel diving into the emerging intersection of bitcoin and insurance markets at the Bitcoin Park Custody & Treasury Summit.
Unchained VP Trey Sellers, Fedi CTO Frank Hinek, and Ten31 Principal John Arnold held a discussion on collaborative custody at the Summit.
Primal Founder and CEO Miljan Braticevic joined Ten31 Partner Matt Odell for the latest Citadel Dispatch.
Market Updates
After weeks of apocalyptic warnings, the first government shutdown since 2018 began on Tuesday evening of this week. As of this writing, Congress still has no clear path to a resolution.
As the shutdown initiates new furloughs and throws more government jobs into question, the latest employment picture came in fairly weak, with ADP data showing an unexpected M/M decline of 32,000 jobs while revising August’s figure down to a monthly loss as well.
While those numbers may come with some caveats, the latest Challenger data pointed to the weakest September for job creation since 2011.
But it’s all good, as President Trump informed the country he’s considering paying out $2,000 “tariff dividends” to all Americans, while reminding everyone in no uncertain terms that we’re going to grow our way out of the current US debt burden.
However, the Supreme Court didn’t give Trump any additional help in achieving his targeted level of monetary largesse, as the justices ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook (whom Trump has sought to unilaterally dismiss for allegations of mortgage fraud) can maintain her position at least through January, pending oral arguments in the case.
Regardless, the market seemed to hear Trump’s “run it hot” message very clearly, as basically everything ripped starting Wednesday morning – even despite the overnight government shutdown – with equity indices hitting new all-time highs once again.
JP Morgan took note of the long-established consensus view of Bitcoin Twitter this week, publishing a report delving into the “debasement trade” driving increasing flows into bitcoin and gold.
In a totally unrelated story, India’s imports of gold and silver doubled M/M in September.
That said, US equities still have yet to be dethroned as a leading recipient of foreign reserve flows, as total foreign holdings of US stocks again hit a new record last month following some dislocation earlier this year on the Trump Administration’s new capital account policies.
Overseas, the US is deep in talks with Argentina to provide new swap lines amid a brewing currency crisis for the increasingly challenged Milei government. Notably, such a measure would reportedly replace an existing Chinese swap line with the country, signaling alignment with recent Department of Defense War pronouncements on reviving the Monroe Doctrine.
Bitcoin got back on the horse in a big way this week, posting its highest quarterly close in history on the way to a rally within 1% of its all-time high.
Less than a year after launching, options on BlackRock’s IBIT ETF have now surpassed open interest in bitcoin futures on Deribit, a recent Coinbase acquisition that is among the oldest and largest “crypto-native” derivatives exchanges.
Regulatory Update
New guidance this week from the Treasury Department explicitly confirmed that unrealized capital gains on digital assets held by public companies will not be subject to the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT), a generally expected but particularly important update for bitcoin treasury companies.
After a few years in relative hibernation, New York legislators revived their long track record of bitcoin-related own goals this week, as the state’s Senate proposed a new excise tax on bitcoin mining.
Germany abruptly reversed its stance on the EU’s proposed “Chat Control” concept, signaling new support for measures that would require messaging service providers to more aggressively surveil all communications, including encrypted chats.
Noteworthy
CME Group, one of the major global derivatives exchanges, announced it will begin offering 24/7 trading for crypto futures next year, eliminating the famous “CME Gap” closely watched by active traders.
Travel
Global Bitcoin Summit, Oct 7-9
Labitconf, Nov 7-8